Probabilities play an essential role in decision-making, whether consciously or not. On any given day, you might—for example—consider the probability that it will rain or that there will be traffic on your way to work. Even though in these cases you do not calculate the actual probability, as suggested by Costello, Watts, and Fisher (2018) in your recommended readings this week, you make an estimate using mechanisms that follow standard probability theory but are subject to random error.

Describe a real-life scenario in which you consider probabilities. Discuss the importance of estimating probabilities in this example.

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